There is a lot of discussion and disagreement about whether or not the current economy is falling apart at a rate wherein we will exceed the Great Depression.
I would like to discuss this from the perspective of LDS understanding of the Last Days, and what we expect to see happening at that time.
Now, it is my understanding that the economy will completely tank. This will be much, much worse than the Great Depression. In Germany, in the 1930's, there are stories of people rolling wheelbarrows of Deutshmarks to the store to buy bread. When they stepped outside the shop, the Marks were all over the ground, but the wheelbarrow was gone.
One of the early church leaders, Brigham Young I think, said that a cat would be more valuable than gold, as you could eat the cat.
Today's economy hasn't even begun to approach this. I am on several mailing lists about the Last Days, and a lot of people go around preaching doom and gloom about the economy. The thing is, it isn't happening. While the DOW and NASDAQ did drop, they didn't drop as low as most of these prophets of doom claimed, and it was a slow drop. The economy only actually shrunk for a few weeks, it was just slow growth. During all this time since the beginning of 2000, construction has still continued and consumer goods manufacturing has done quite well.
Machine tools manufacturing, on the other hand, has been extremely slow.
Now, the markets are coming back up. Machine tooling is recovering. And there are reports of growth rates approaching 8%.
I think that we will see a couple more years of slow, stuttering growth. About four years from now, the economy will REALLY begin to slide. Actually, I think there will be a huge national crisis, a Constitutional crisis, that will absolutely kill the market over a weekend. That will wipe out the US economy, and will pull the rest of the world down with it.
NightHawk
Interesting discussion, but I really cannot relate if the focus is more on the US economy rather than world economy, which by the way, is really what controls everything. Yes, the US has a big part and is a major contributor to the stabalization of the global dollar, but at the same time everything has become intertwined. A sudden upset in oil in the Middle East can cause oli prices to go up and down, a stock market crash in Tokyo can affect millions in the US, etc.
However, I do believe that this network of monies (especially the EU) is all in preparation for the 'great fall', afterall, what better to bring it all down when you can do it all at once?
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I am on several mailing lists about the Last Days, and a lot of people go around preaching doom and gloom about the economy. |
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About four years from now, the economy will REALLY begin to slide. |
QUOTE (tenaheff @ 28-Nov 03, 12:45 PM) |
I must admit, I don't know much about this topic, but Nighthawk, I would be interested in why you think this will happen in about 4 years? |
Nighthawk said:
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I think that we will see a couple more years of slow, stuttering growth. About four years from now, the economy will REALLY begin to slide. |
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The economy only actually shrunk for a few weeks, it was just slow growth. During all this time since the beginning of 2000, construction has still continued and consumer goods manufacturing has done quite well. Machine tools manufacturing, on the other hand, has been extremely slow. Now, the markets are coming back up. Machine tooling is recovering. And there are reports of growth rates approaching 8%. |
Being in automotive manufacturing, I know that all GM, Ford, and Daimler-Chrysler are all three bringing out new products, that require new facilities. This is a huge boost to the machine tools industry.
Yes, Cincinnati went down. So did Olafsson. But others are seeing new orders coming in. Not a huge thing yet, but some growth.
I don't expect that we will go back to the mid-80's or the mid-90's. In fact, if there were NOT a complete collapse, our children can look forward to enjoying a lower standard of living than we do. We, the automotive industry, really need to close a lot of plants and lay off a lot of workers.
Remember, I DO agree with you! I just think we are about three or four years away from the collapse. I could easily be wrong.
NightHawk