Page 3 Economy US
I guess I am a bit shocked that there werent further reductions foreseen by economists. December through February are typically horrible months for the manufacturing sector, if it caters the least bit to retail purchases. January and February are really bad for retail in general. Additionally, companies look at the end of the year towards next year for budgeting and layoffs for the next year happen at the end of the year. If everything stays on course, then you will see things pick up around March.
This is going to be a really long recovery and if we want to call them double dip recessions, fine. However, if you think about the loan types that people got that overstretched themselves...it will take about 4 years beyond the time that the last of the bad loans were granted that we truly reach the end of defaulting on loans, which in turn fail banks, which in turn we try to give Chinese money to prop up. The only thing that can save us would be a rapid increase in realestate prices, but that would dry up some of the spending that is helping us now.
Honestly, I can easily see another dip at the beginning of this year with the bottom hitting us from March - June in unemployment and a very slow return that will take at minimum about 5 years.