
I have heard 2 things. One was that the US tried to do air testing to see if there was a nuclear blast and that was inconclusive. However, another country closer (maybe Russia) did some testing and did confirm the blast.
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I did not think it would be that hard to confirm a nuclear blast. I guess no satellite was looking at that moment in time.
I agree it is a political power play for Kim Jong Un so as to strengthen his position as a strong leader.
Once a missile is shot down would you expect things to quiet down in North Korean global power play? I think if one is shot down a second will be launched just to prove they can, then they will to continue to work in quiet in the next stages of advancement in their military might.
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My opinion is that the US and Japan have to threaten to blow up any rogue/unannounced missile launch out of N.Korea leaving no uncertainty that they are talking about the missile that N.Korea has on the launching pad. N.Korea will be left knowing that a launch would be shot down and televised throughout the world with no objection from their friends in China or Russia (who would be really upset to see that any sort of missile prevention out of the west works) would be a huge loss of face for the new "Leader in Waiting" and the "Dear Leader". So prior to the missile launch, there will be a huge statement full of wind and hot air from the N.Korea side that will tell Japan and the US (through the terminology used) that it is not going to be a strike on any land, but basically a test...and it is their right to do so. This will be standing up to the Western world and their neighbors (big points for the "to be" leader). Of course prior to the launch, the UN will say that it forbids N.Korea from launching the missile. Both Kim's will laugh heartily and shoot the missile anyway. Following that, there will be a strongly worded slap on the hand for the Kim's and N.Korea will go quiet for a while or maybe they will announce the new leader.
If it were to get to the point where the US or Japan shoots down the missile, Kim Jong Il totally miscalculated (and he usually doesnt do this) the response to launching another missile. He will have thought that the US doesnt want another war. That is probably why Japan shoots down the missile. Then Japan starts their own nuclear program, which would be full completed in 2 years and dwarf the N.Korean effort, with public backing that now more easily sees the enemy. As far as a response, I wouldn't expect a missile launch again. If one was shot down, it would be just as easy to keep dropping them out of the sky with a little bit of face lost with each lost bird. Actually, I would expect a "accident" in the seas nearby with the N.Korea Navy and a massing of troops on the border to create a emergency response from S.Korea, Japan and the US. Edited: Vincenzo on 4th Jun, 2009 - 12:05pm
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I think everyone is 'spoiled' by the USA's usual initiative in these things. In another Thread there was a Post about North Korea approaching South Korea for talks so probably the fire display is over for now, but who knows.
What is the North Korean Navy like: size, ability, technology, etc.?
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Source 1
You can check for yourself. S. Korea could decimate N. Korea's navy. However, N.Korea has enough ships to cause havok for a while in the waters. N.Korea has no Battleships or subs...S. Korea has both.
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Thanks for the update. No wonder the North Koreans have to do all their fire shows from land. I was wondering why they did not launch fireworks from their ships.
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U.S. Weighs Intercepting North Korean Shipments
The Obama administration signaled Sunday that it was seeking a way to interdict, possibly with China's help, North Korean sea and air shipments suspected of carrying weapons or nuclear technology. Ref. Source 5