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Russia vs Georgia - Page 4

US warship docks in Georgia port

A US warship arrives in the Georgian port of Batumi carrying the first shipment of aid since the conflict began.
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Georgia Russia

The Russians are looking for serious trouble here. Are we looking at the frame work for a third world war?

Russia vs Georgia History & Civil Business Politics

Actually, I think we could be looking at a very strange Georgian Civil War. In the US War of Independence, we had help from France against the British. However, that help wasnt the overwhelming force on the battlefield. That was still US soldiers versus British soldiers. The Korean War comes close when the Chinese jumped in, as they were the dominant force for the other side. Here, it isnt even close. Russia is the most dominant force on either side when it enters the conflict. I can actually see the breakaways forming their own states, but the key question is do the then ask to be annexed by Russia?

There have been 3 Presidents of Georgia since it was given its freedom. Only the first one took the job without a coup. With each coup, there has to be a new disenfranchised group to deal with...this cannot lead to a united people. There has been civil unrest in this country since the collapse of the USSR.

The structure of the country is a basic mess. You have the autonomous republics (within the country) of Abkhazia, Adjara and S. Ossetia. The majority of these special republic actually operate as individual independent states. It would be like the individual states within the US being fully autonomous. I kind of look at this like Guantanamo Bay in Cuba. It is in Cuba, but they sure dont have any control over it.

With the Russians giving the Georgians of S. Ossetia Russian passports, basically this is annexation. I look for them to SLOWLY move out of Georgia, leave a strong force near the boarder, wait for the S. Ossetians and the Abkhazians to fully utilize their autonomy and apply for annexation.

Edited: Vincenzo on 26th Aug, 2008 - 2:02pm

Page 4 Georgia Russia

Good forecast, however you only mentioned Russia's plan, what is likely to be the UN and US' role in this if it does happen? I wonder if the Georgian army will likely round up again and try to move back into South Ossetia?

Lastly, the US ship is not there for supplies only, we all know that. It is a statement and a way to get intelligence on the ground.

Georgia Russia

See that is just it. If the S. Ossetians and Abkhazians are already autonomous republics, I cannot see the US seriously engaging Russia in the event that they apply peacefully for annexation to Russia. Call it a coup of allegiance. Granting the passports was a stroke of genius on the Russian part. The only way the US would get into it is if Russia actually invades and attempts to take over Georgia. Same goes for the UN as well. But why invade when all you have to do is get them to vote you as head and the one which the pledge allegiance to...

If the Georgian government would like to continue to have a military, they will avoid conflict with the Russian at all cost. They lost quite a bit with the little skirmish that they had recently.

Russia vs Georgia

Good stuff. I do not know if the US will want this to pass so easily though, because then it will give others ideas that they can do the same thing while expecting backing from Russia.

Russia Georgia - Page 4

Oh, they and the rest of the western world will raise their arms up and there will be harsh words to let Russia know that this is a one time thing, but if it is the will of the people living there to not be part of Georgia anymore, I think the US, UN, etc... will take a hands off approach militarily. Now this is not cart blanche for Russia to go overturn all the former satellites, but this is a case where they obviously never were really fully integrated into Georgia. Not to mention, these areas that were are talking about already boarder Russia and Abkhazia is a pretty prime waterfront property.

Actually, the boarders that were drawn were pretty much the same that were drawn back in 1918 when Georgia was a independent Country for about 3 years before being taken in by Russia. Even back then, they were separate groups operating under one flag.

Looking at this more like a chess match, all Russia needs to do is actually pull out of Georgia as they said they would (keep the west happy), make sure that things are in place so Georgia cannot retake the land (make Russia happy) and let their passports do the rest of the work (make S. Ossetia happy). In the end, the will of those people to secede from Georgia will be heard and there really isnt much anyone can really do about it. I mean...the US was founded by such actions when seceding from the British. However, when the south seceded from the north, it was the strength of the north that won. Again, there was little additional support of any outside forces in the US civil war. Right now, S. Ossetia's Uncle Boris is by far the biggest dog in the fight!

Edited: Vincenzo on 26th Aug, 2008 - 2:01pm

Russia Georgia Politics Business Civil & History - Page 4

A full scale war with Russia would be another smart move by the goverment. We cant afford the war we have. The Russians would walk all over us right now.