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Ok, I do believe I have the forged letter completed. Is there any roll I should make in conjunction with it?
By and large I think the forged letter is pretty good. I do have some reservations about certain things but I will refrain from bringing them up, save for one. I really wish you had not mentioned the "Kobold encampment." I didn't want any of those folks out there aware of our knowledge of them. But I am hopeful they buy the note, hook, line and sinker.
So, the reasoning behind giving that info up is twofold. The first being that it would lend a little bit more credibility to the letter as who would willingly give up potentially valuable knowledge that freely if not actually trying to be a "Double agent" if you will.
The second reason is if there is no attack during the night, come dawn Sar'ai will ask Poljen to look out toward where he last saw the kobold encampment through his spyglass. If they are not there or have repositioned themselves, it serves as confirmation that the message was received. If it appears that there is no change, then what has the group really lost?
Several points: First, as Daishain pointed out, Poljen briefly glimpsed what we now know to be kobolds out patrolling with the spyglass. That is what spurred him to try the trick with the pigeon in the first place. Maybe he can try it again in the morning. But he is not sure where the kobolds are camped. He does know where the human(?)/dragonborn camp is, but that can not be seen from the tower.
I think you made a mistake by not asking your prisoner(S) how they communicated with the east group. Maybe they don't. Having the owl show up, and them shooting at it leads me to believe they were aware it was someone's familiar.
Next, we do not know if they east group is aware the west group has been removed from the board. Maybe they do, but with the magic barrier they probably don't. It is possible the folks you managed to nab got the word out before you caught them, I admit. But by admitting our group has arrived, and supposedly includes a turncoat in it, simply gives them solid proof that our group is there, and something that must be reckoned with.
The best lies are the simplest, and wrapped in as much truth as possible. If as a group we had been consulted on it, I might not have made many suggestions as that is not Poljen's forte, but he would have said, "Keep it simple. Say the signal was a mistake, and don't give too much reason or detail. Let them ponder it. Maybe they will hesitate while they think things over. By having a message delivered at all, they now may suspect we are aware of them and will move, and take measures not to be found again. Or they may speed up their timetable. I fear that we have will lose our biggest advantage against that group. That of surprise."
I have played and run innumerable spy games over the decades, and can tell you the reason most con jobs fail is the people running them assume their target is at least no smarter than the con artists, and usually dumber. But frequently they are not. Your basic idea is a risky one, with potential for a decent pay-off, but it will rely on them buying a whole bunch of coincidence. Fingers are crossed! Edited: PaulNelson on 23rd Feb, 2017 - 1:54am